President Trump’s July 9th deadline for trade deals is a week away, and US and EU negotiators remain far apart on key issues. Both parties may slap each other with retaliatory duties if negotiators cannot agree on a framework for further talks by the deadline. However, such an escalation would be short-lived; constraints on both the US and EU favor an eventual return back to the negotiating table.

Why it matters: Tariffs threaten to dramatically increase prices on goods from both economies. Total US-EU trade is presently valued at almost $1 trillion ($606B imports, $370B exports, per the US Census Bureau).

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Chris Siepmann is the Managing Director at Weller James, where he helps clients navigate geopolitical risk and international policy changes. Previously, he served as Director for Trade Enforcement at the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative during the first Trump administration, where he advised on the China Section 301 tariffs and a range of other issues. More insights from Chris are available at https://wellerjames.com.